Who Will be President?

Presidential elections are all about who can get to 270 electoral votes. After simulating the election ten-thousand times, the model predicts a 316-222 electoral win for Hillary Clinton. We expect her final margin in the popular vote to be around +2.8 points, down from +3.9 points a week ago.

Odds of a candidate's victory are always changing. Here's how the odds have changed over time.

Here are some electoral maps based on margins of victory. In darker blue states, Clinton is favored to win by a wider margin, while in darker red states, Trump is favored.

Odds of a candidate's victory are updated whenever new polling information is available. For states with enough polling data, here's how the chances have evolved over time.

Which states will be close and which ones will be blowouts? Here's how the margins of victory will probably play out. For Trump, the biggest blowout should be Wyoming, where the model expects him to win by around 23 points. Clinton's biggest blowout should be Washington DC, where she is expected to win by 81 points. The error bars are 80% confidence intervals.

Here are the odds we'll see these election scenarios.

Here are all of the current forecasts for the general election. The model predicts that Hillary Clinton will win 26 of 51 electoral contests (remember, DC gets 3 electoral votes).

Acknowledgments: The design of the final electoral cartogram was created by Adam McCann and can be found here.